TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he has no confidence in these hated names, and neither should you.
The financials are flying -- there are finally bids for most of them underneath. Many, including Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take), are running. What a great time to put the negative cards on the table and put the negatives in perspective. That's right, let's look at the financial Achilles' heels. What could go wrong? In other words, here's the companion piece to Doug Kass' positive conversion. Here's what I am worried about even as Doug thinks everyone's too worried and the bottom is being put in.
To get started, let's look at what's not causing the endless declines in the stocks -- don't worry, we will get to the financial dirty dozen when I finish this preamble.
First, it ain't earnings. Earnings aren't going to be that great. But that's why the S&P is at 14 times. It can go to 12 or 11, or most likely stays at 13-14, but the E goes down (earnings).
Second, it ain't oil. The stocks sensitive to the increase in oil have room to go down, but the price of oil is being factored in slowly but surely.
Third, it isn't inflation or recession. Those two are being baked in each day.
According to CNBC, employees will receive 20% of last year's bonus in stock that vests over three years. "Lehman's decision to issue additional stock to employees is being interpreted by some in the market as a sign that the Lehman is not planning to sell itself for a below-market price," writes CNBC ON-Air Editor Charlie Gasparino.
Hmm. Didn't the same conventional wisdom believe that Bear Stearns was too big to fail and that the end of the write-downs at Wall Street banks was near? So, pardon me if I am a little skeptical.
As Fortune magazine notes, Lehman, like other Wall Street banks, got itself into trouble by making scores of bad real estate investments.
"Because it prided itself on real estate expertise - it helped popularize real estate-backed securities in the early 1970s - and investment prowess, Lehman risked far bigger proportions of its own capital doing deals than its major competitors did," the magazine notes. Little wonder that the stock is down more than 65% this year.
Sorting out through this mess will take years. Any Lehman employees who were smart enough to get hired probably know a bad deal when they see it. This well-timed leak to CNBC is part of Lehman's efforts to avoid becoming the next Bear Stearns.
For now, the ploy is working. Shares of the New York-based investment bank are trading up on the news -- Lehman shares closed up 6.68%. Over the long run, though, investors and Lehman employees will see through the smokescreen.
After a brief refreshment, today just ended up being ugly rather than what many were hoping would be a boring day. Today's action was likely due more to analyst concerns, but a late-day news report on a security breach scare at LAX airport may have added stress to a trading day that would have otherwise been quiet. The markets are grossly oversold, but there just seems to be very few reasons for traders to hit their "BUY" buttons on keyboards.
These are UNOFFICIAL closing bell levels for major index readings:
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the daily disaster due analyst call. Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to Underperform and noted that "the chances of bankruptcy aren't impossible." 24/7 Wall St. noted the same weeks before, and we even posted odds on what the chances are that major auto or airline companies would have to file for protection by the end of 2008 to early 2009.
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lehman Brothers, Nokia and Intuitive Surgical were today's noteworthy initiations:
Morgan Stanley initiated Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) with an Overweight rating and $31 target. The firm believes Lehman's discount to book value prices in significant write-downs.
Bernstein believes Nokia (NYSE:NOK) will see a slowdown in demand for devices and could loss market share. Shares were initiated with an Underperform rating.
Merriman assumed Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) with a Neutral rating and believes the tightened credit markets could impact capital equipment spending for small and mid-sized hospitals. They find shares appropriately valued at current levels.
Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc (NYSE: BUD) is going to turn down InBev's unsolicited $46.35B takeover offer and that may come before week's end, the Wall Street Journal reported. InBev is then expected to pursue a hostile takeover and Anheuser will say the offer undervalues the company. Instead, Anheuser will attempt to boost its share price by selling non-core assets such as its theme parks.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Belgian-Dutch financial firm Fortis NL (OTC: FORSY), in a move to increase its solvency, will attempt to raise $12.54B, and will also cancel its interim dividend and sell some assets.
The Financial Times reported that the London Stock Exchange, in a joint venture with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), unveiled a pan-European equities trading platform to fight rivals that are hurting its market share.
Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) shares are falling with other investment banks on news that Citigroup (NYSE: C) is in the process of cutting 6,500 jobs in its investment banking division. The move reflects the deterioration of market conditions over the past year, and seems to have investors worried about the health of the industry. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LEH.
After hitting a one-year high of $78.86 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $20.25 in March. This morning, LEH opened at $24.15. So far today the stock has hit a low of $3.20 and a high of $24.35. As of 12:25, LEH is trading at $23.26, down 0.94 (-3.9%). The chart for LEH looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $40 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in four months as long as LEH is below $40 at October expiration. Lehman would have to rise by more than 70% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
LEH hasn't been above $40 since mid-May and has been falling steeply recently, displaying resistance around $24. This trade could be risky if the financial sector turns things around shortly, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance LEH might find at its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $38 and falling. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LEH or C.
Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER), at least according to rumors running amok on trading floors, may issue a profit warning and take additional writedowns on its mortgage holdings. MER shares plunged over 5.5% as a result.
I always cringe a bit when I hear of trading floor rumors. Like it or not, traders have a vested interest so it's harder for me to take what they say at face value. Much different than when newspapers report without naming sources. At least there, I'd like to believe, journalistic standards should prevail.
Indeed, while Reuters says that "A Merrill spokeswoman declined to comment on the rumors," CNBC says that sources told it the U.S. broker "is not preparing to issue a profit warning Friday."
With $30 billion worth of writedowns under its belt, it's not difficult to believe that Merrill will indeed require additional writedowns, capital raising, or asset sales. Especially in light of what's been happening the last few weeks. Not only did peers Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) -- down 4% -- and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) -- down 3.5% -- posted weak results this week, but financials in general announced one writedown, or capital raise, one asset sale after another.
Indeed, analysts have been cutting their forecast on financials these days, including Merrill. If a month ago analysts had predicted earnings of 44 cents a share, today the average estimate runs at 16 cents a share.
So-called chatter can have its own agenda among traders so I'm wary of such unsubstantiated rumors. Yet, in this case, its more than likely such a warning would be out sooner or later. Just look at what Citigroup (NYSE: C) -- down 3.6% -- said Thursday.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the acquired Bear Stearns portfolio is worth even less than he thought.
How bad was that Bear Stearns portfolio? I am beginning to believe that JPMorgan's (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) buy of Bear is looking like a big mistake. It can only be justified by what might have been an even bigger problem for JPM -- the collapse of the trades that Bear made, which were being processed by JPM's clearing.
We are now beginning to get a real sense of the worthlessness of the mortgage portfolios. Not that we got any help from the SEC, which has taken a "we don't care what's in the mortgages as long as you tell us you have mortgages" attitude. That's been worthless for investors, and maybe even for JPMorgan.
The losses now exceed $400 billion, according to my modeling (if you simply assumed that 50% of the exotic mortgages that were issued from 2005 to 2007 eventually went into default). That's amazing, but it looks like I dramatically underestimated the losses. UNDERESTIMATED!
The most egregious issuers of these exotic mortgages were Bear, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take). I believe that JPM has taken in a huge number of uninsurable, non-hedgeable mortgage instruments that are a pure write-off. And that means they are probably underwater on everything they took in.
Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) is having such trouble that it will lay-off another 1,200 people.
According toReuters, "In an e-mail, Washington Mutual said it was cutting jobs that support its home lending unit, centralizing some support functions, and focusing on 'mission-critical activities.'" The announcement was part of a cascade of tough news for financial companies.
Not only have Lehman (NYSE: LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) posted poor results, but Citigroup (NYSE:C) said its expected more write-offs through the end of the year. The head of hedge fund Paulson & Co. expects total losses at banks to hit $1.3 trillion, with two-thirds of it yet to come.
Short interest in most large financial companies moved up sharply in the period ending June 15. Shares short in Wachovia (NYSE: WB) moved up 26.2 million to 177.4 million. Short interest in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) jumped 18.2 million to 82.7 million.
Most of this means that bank, brokerage and insurance shares could be much lower at the end of 2008. Many already trade at 52-week lows, but if losses mount, they will have to raise more money, and that means dilution.
Citigroup trades for under $20 in premarket action. As a bellwether for the industry, who would be surprised to see it at $10?
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
And you thought it was all over. Well, you weren't alone. Many bank executives thought the same thing, that we've seen the worst of the writedowns banks were taking as a result of the subprime mortgage collapse.
So when today Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), the bank responsible for 10% of the total writedowns due to the subprime and credit crisis, announced it "would suffer more "substantial" write-downs on debt investments in the second quarter," many were taken aback. Sure, the CFO said that sequentially, Citi would write down less than in the first quarter, but he also said the marks are "sizable" and gave the impression they will likely go into the next few quarters. Credit markets remain tight, he said.
Perhaps we've seen the worst, if I insist on being optimistic, but we surely haven't seen the last. Just in the past week we heard from Lehman (NYSE: LEH), AIG (NYSE: AIG), UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB). We heard of writedowns, asset sales and capital raises, none of which gave much confidence about financials and the credit markets, but there was the lingering hope we were seeing the last few hiccups (large as they were).
Still, people remained cautious and I didn't hear pounding the table to get into bank stocks, although no one could deny that some financials saw some recovery since mid-March. It was also somewhat puzzling that Citi managed to raise just over a month ago some $4.5 billion from its public offering. Meaning, there were buyers at $25 and change. The stock closed at $20.17 today after dipping to $19.41 earlier in the session.
OK, so I know we're supposed to be forward looking when investing, but there are some stocks in some sectors I simply wouldn't touch. Not all of them, of course. I'd much rather take my chances with Goldman (NYSE: GS).
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), the nation's second largest investment bank, posted its second quarter numbers today. As expected, the firm saw a hefty drop in quarterly profit. The ongoing credit crisis hit the bank hard and resulted in a 61% decline in quarterly profit, a number that could have been much worse.
The reason why I say that the situation could have been much worse is that the company benefited from the sale of around $1.4 billion in assets during the quarter. This contributed to a profit of 95 cents per share for the quarter.
The 95 cents per share was actually above Wall Street estimates, as analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings for the quarter of 92 cents per share. But that has not prevented traders from pushing the stock lower in early morning trading. As of 11:00 am, we are seeing shares trading down 5% to $38.49.
Stocks futures fell early Wednesday, ahead of the weekly crude oil inventories figures as oil persists at high level and ahead of earnings from Morgan Stanley and FedEx as many hope to see clearer signs the credit crunch crisis has peaked and its effects begin to ease.
On Tuesday, U.S. stocks fell sharply despite solid earnings from Goldman Sachs. Goldman, though, suggested more is to come in terms of the credit crisis. In addition, several economic figures on inflation, housing and industrial production further damped the sentiment on Wall Street. The Dow industrials fell 108 points, or 0.89%, the S&P 500 dropped 9 points, or 0.68%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 17 points, or 0.69%.
Not much is on the economic docket today. At 10:30 a.m. EDT, the government will report its weekly figures on fuel supplies. Oil prices edged above $134 in electronic trading ahead of that report and the meeting in Jeddah Sunday of oil producing and consuming nations. So far, it seems the promised increased production from the Saudis has not helped to lower the price of oil as it is weighed against increased global demand.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) reported earnings today, and while revenue and profit were -- not surprisingly -- down from a year ago period (but higher compared to the previous quarter), it actually had profits to speak of, $2.09 billion of them to be exact. Indeed, Goldman did it again, surpassing Wall Street expectations for a profit of $3.42 per share on $8.74 billion of revenue with a profit of $4.58 per share and revenue of $9.42 billion.
It would be only natural to ask how Goldman made $2 billion while Lehman lost $2.8 billion. The answers are many, not the least of which is size: Goldman is the world's biggest securities firm, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is the smallest among the four Wall Street investment banks. Other factors could include better hedging, financial decision making, diversification, management and strength of balance sheet.
To get a feel of the differences in numbers, Goldman currently holds about $14 billion of leveraged loans, down from $52 billion at their height less than a year ago in August. Residential mortgages, which include the subprime loans, have fallen to about $15 billion on Goldman's balance sheet from $19 billion last quarter. Lehman Brothers' portfolio of mortgages, including commercial loans, stood at $60.8 billion. It also has about $18 billion of leveraged-buyout loans. It is no wonder CEO Fuld took ten minutes at the beginning of the conference call to take responsibility.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees. 
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Stocks futures fell early Wednesday, ahead of the weekly crude oil inventories figures as oil persists at high level and ahead of earnings from Morgan Stanley and FedEx as many hope to see clearer signs the credit crunch crisis has peaked and its effects begin to ease.
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