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Lady Luck deserts gambling stocks

There is something rotten in Denmark, to quote from Hamlet, Act I, as well as in Las Vegas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Colorado, Iowa, and Florida. Gambling havens, once thought recession proof, are in trouble. Customer numbers are down, as are gambling, gift shop, hotel, and restaurant revenues. Casinos in Las Vegas have been hard hit, according to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, because of billions of dollars of debt to finance overambitious expansion plans. Tropicana Entertainment filed for Chapter 11 in May, defaulting on $2.67 billion in bank and bond debt. But smaller casinos are also feeling the pain.

Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. (NASDAQ: ISLE) recently reported 4Q and FY2008 results. Snake eyes. Investors know they are not in for good news when the CEO spends the first few paragraphs of an earnings release discussing what a "transformational period" the last year has been. That's corporate-speak for "money losing," beginning with a $78.7 million write down in the value of some of the company's international assets and ending with a $51.3 million loss from continuing operations in 4Q 2008. All told, Isle of Capri Casinos lost $96.9 million from continuing operations in FY2008.The company cited increased competition in riverboat gambling in Biloxi, a smoking ban in casinos in Colorado, and a flood in Natchez as reasons for the lackluster performance. The company admits it needs to renovate 1,200 of its hotel rooms in order to attract customers back to the slots and tables.

The stock is currently trading at $4.23, near its 52-week low of $3.97.

Corel earnings drop 60%

Anybody who does much in the way of graphics or design knows Corel Corp. (NASDAQ: CREL) and its products -- Corel DRAW and Corel Paint Shop. No question they are good products. But that does not mask the fact that 2Q 2008 numbers do paint paint a pretty picture. Interim CEO Kris Hagerman states that "Corel performed well in the second quarter." Given that revenues were up less than 3% and GAAP net income, another word for earnings, dropped 60% to $930,000, what would qualify in Hagerman's book as a bad quarter? It isn't necessarily how much a company makes that is most important, it is how much of that amount it gets to keep.

EBITDA is heading south and Hagerman admits the company needs to pursue "opportunities in faster growing markets." The company issued 3Q 2008 guidance of GAAP earnings per share of zero to $0.06, in line with 2Q results. Time for senior management to paint a prettier picture.

Shares closed Thursday at $10.75. The stock is up about 4% year to date.

See also: What's going on with the Corel buyout?

Intel lower on Nvidia guidance

INTC logoIntel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) shares fell today with most other tech stocks after Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) lowered its second-quarter revenue outlook to a range between $875 million and $950 million, well below analysts' expectations of $1.1 billion. NVDA cited end-market weakness for the lower forecast, which could be a bad sign for INTC. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on INTC.

After hitting a one-year high of $27.99 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $18.05 in January. This morning, INTC opened at $20.62. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.26 and a high of $20.80. As of 12:10, INTC is trading at $20.65, down 0.28 (-1.3%). The chart for INTC looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $23 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.0% return in six weeks as long as INTC is below $23 at August expiration. Intel would have to rise by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.

Continue reading Intel lower on Nvidia guidance

Trade idea for recent Aetna downgrade

AET logoAetna (NYSE: AET) shares are falling today after an analyst at Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to "Sell" from "Neutral," saying the company will face lower profit margins over the next few years. Other companies in the health-care industry also got downgrades today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AET.

After hitting a one-year high of $60.00 in December, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, AET opened at $36.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.01 and a high of $37.99. As of 11:55, AET is trading at $37.29, down 2.50 (-6.3%). The chart for AET looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $45 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in six weeks as long as AET is below $45 at August expiration. AET would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.

Continue reading Trade idea for recent Aetna downgrade

Oil pushes past $145 on dollar decline concerns

Another day, another oil record.

Oil easily pushed past $145 Thursday morning after traders calculated that the already weak dollar has further to fall after the European Central Bank increased a key interest rate by a quarter point to 4.25%.

Oil rose as much as $2.28 to $145.85 per barrel -- an all-time high -- before easing back slightly to trade at $144.40 at mid-day.

Oil tends to rise when the dollar falls as investors/traders seek to preserve purchasing power of the decreased value of dollar-denominated commodities by bidding their price up. However, it's important to note that the dollar/oil correlation is not perfect: there have been instances in which the dollar fell and oil fell.

Continue reading Oil pushes past $145 on dollar decline concerns

Elizabeth Taylor and Kathy Ireland walk away from jewelry company

House of Taylor Jewelry Inc. (OTC: HOTJ) is closing up shop, according to The New York Post. Elizabeth Taylor and Kathy Ireland, the company's celebrity spokespeople, have severed their ties with the company, leaving New Stream Secured Capital to forage for the $11 million it's still owed.

Taylor and Ireland reaped generous license fees for their participation in the venture and also owned a combined 49.5% stake in the venture.

Having debuted at $4 per share in 2006, House of Taylor closed on Tuesday at less than 4/10th's of one penny. The failure of this company could hardly be considered surprising. The company's large debt load makes this a tough economic environment to execute a turnaround and it seems doubtful that has-beens like Kathy Ireland and Elizabeth Taylor have sufficient selling power to justify their licensing fees.

Looking through the S&P list of jewelry companies, I'm having trouble finding one whose stock has been up over the past 52 weeks.

U.S. weekly jobless claims pass 400k, signaling further economic slowing

Initial U.S. jobless claims increased 16,000 to 404,000 for the week ended June 28, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

Claims for the previous week were revised 2,000 higher to 388,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 385,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,250 to 390,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said Thursday the jobless claims picture indicates economic conditions are worsening in the United States. "We're now above 400,000 in new claims. This is a sign the economy is stalling. Earlier, we did not see jobless claims as high as in previous slowdowns, but the job slide is accelerating, so in my view GDP will definitely be negative in Q2," Dawson said. "We've got to find a way to jump-start both jobs and demand or this economy will suffer a deeper recession."

Continue reading U.S. weekly jobless claims pass 400k, signaling further economic slowing

Abbott's success is Boston Scientific's failure

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) got approval for its new drug-coated stent. The products are used to open clogged arteries, often in the place of by-pass surgery. The field has been dominated by deeply troubled medical device company Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX). It looks that the weakened company is in for much more pain.

According to The Wall Street Journal, ABT "received regulatory approval for its Xience V drug-coated stent, which is expected to be the top seller in the roughly $2 billion U.S. market because it appears to be more effective than rival devices." Boston Scientific will sell the new Abbott product, but with 40% of the revenue going to its rival, it is hard to see how that is a good deal.

BSX has been beaten by competition at almost every turn. It took on tremendous debt when it bought medical device company Guidant. It faced trouble when some Guidant products hit quality control issues. Boston Scientific stents came under criticism a year ago, when medical research questioned how effective they were.

BSX traded at almost $45 in 2004. It is now at about $12. With new competition and a bad balance sheet, that is not likely to change much.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

U.S. economy sheds 62,000 jobs in June as unemployment holds at 5.5%

The U.S. economy lost another 62,000 jobs in June, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday, as surging fuel prices forced companies in the world's largest economy to continue to cut expenses to protect profits in the face of the economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, the unemployment remained at 5.5% in June, the highest level since October 2004.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 50,000 jobs in June. Furthermore, June was the U.S. economy's sixth straight monthly job loss. The U.S. economy lost a revised 62,000 jobs in May, up from the 49,000 earlier estimate; the U.S. economy lost 28,000 jobs in April.

The June job losses brought total job losses in 2008 to 438,000, the Labor Department said.

Meanwhile, the number of unemployed persons was unchanged at 8.5 million in June. Since March 2007, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 1.2 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.5% point.

Continue reading U.S. economy sheds 62,000 jobs in June as unemployment holds at 5.5%

Nvidia (NVDA): A bad start for tech earnings

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the big graphics chip maker, warned on profits. It was an inauspicious beginning to the earnings season for tech stocks. Many of the world's PCs use Nvidia chips. One of the reasons the company gave for its trouble is slowing demand combined with lower prices. The news was considered so bad that NVDA shares fell over 20% after hours.

According to MarketWatch, the company "expects its second-quarter revenue and gross margin to be lower than its previously announced forecast. The company now expects revenue from $875 million to $950 million." The consensus among analysts was that the company would have revenue of $1.1 billion.

Because the firm's products are so closely associated with PC sales, shares in other chip companies like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and computer makers like Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) are almost certain to be viewed as candidates for earnings downgrades of their own.

Nvidia's forecast could be the start of a very hard quarter for tech companies. And they may have been Wall Street's last significant hope.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

U.S. EIA cuts 2010 global oil production estimate

Many investors / traders are aware of the increasing demand for oil stemming form emerging markets economic growth. Vibrant, dynamic economies in China and India, but also in Australia and the Middle East, have been the biggest factor in oil's four-year bull market, which has brought oil prices to a record of over $140 per barrel.

Moreover, oil sector analysts, economists and executives are counting on continual, sizable oil production increases from non-OPEC nations to help contain oil prices in the quarters and years ahead, but now it appears there may be a problem related to that assumption.

Non-OPEC, OPEC output estimates lowered

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical unit, has lowered its estimate for non-OPEC production in 2010 by 1.1 million barrels per day to 51.8 million barrels per day, from last year's forecast of 52.9 million. At the same time, the EIA lowered its 2010 OPEC production forecast by 400,000 barrels to 37.4 million.

Further, the EIA now sees 2010 global oil demand at 89.2 million -- in other words a statistical balance between daily global oil supply and demand.

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks the projected production reduction is not good news for consumers in either the developed or developing worlds.

Continue reading U.S. EIA cuts 2010 global oil production estimate

Automakers brace for more hard times to come

It probably should come as no surprise, but June was a tough month for automakers, and all signs are pointing to more troubles out on the horizon.

All but one major automaker saw their sales drop last month, with Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC) being the sole exception. For the month, Honda actually had a 1% year-over-year sales growth, which given the current market place was an exceptional feat.

So just how bad was June for the automakers? Pretty bad. During the month, combined auto sales fell to 1.19 million vehicles sold, a 266,000 decline from the same period last year. This just continues the trend that we have been seeing all year, amounting to roughly a 10% sales decline during the first half of the year.

Continue reading Automakers brace for more hard times to come

Come on -- Dow 10,000? Really?

For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at CNBC.com talks about the possibility of Dow 10,000. Dow 10,000!

I repeated that in case you didn't get it the first time. It sounds pretty scary to me, and it should sound pretty scary to a lot of you out there. I'd have to presume that most investors don't use the stock market primarily as a substitute casino for the times when Las Vegas is out of reach. Many of you out there must own a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), maybe a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), something generally considered core and safe for the long-term. I happen to own the first three. Anyone who does is in for some huge volatility if Dow 10,000 comes along.

Actually, whether it comes along or not, volatility is here to stay. And here's the thing about the Dow 10,000 prediction: it isn't so farfetched on a mathematical basis. When you first read that number, you say to yourself "No way, that would be like a depression!" But because the numbers are getting higher, the actual point moves aren't as dramatic as they may seem on the surface. If we hit 10,000, that would represent a decline of approximately 29% from the high reached back in October 2007. As I write this, the Dow is about 20% off the high. Is another 9% feasible?

Continue reading Come on -- Dow 10,000? Really?

Rite Aid (RAD) is wrong, wrong, wrong!

Last year, actually 18 months ago now, James Cramer had enough faith in the Rite Aid Corp (NYSE: RAD) to include it in his 2007 picks. At that time the stock was trading for $5.49 per share. It closed yesterday at $1.56 and is trading further down today.

When I say RAD is wrong, wrong, wrong, I mean it literally. There is a store located a few blocks from my office that I shop at perhaps once a month. Yesterday I bought a few things and was amazed at how bad their accounting was.

My primary mission was to acquire some toothpaste, but there are always a few tempting sale items. When I was checking out I discovered that the sports drink for sale at "5 for $5 dollars" was a mistake and the sign in the store display should have been taken down because the offer had expired. Another item I purchased was marked down from $3.99 to $1.99, great deal! . . . but they told me that the sale price was placed on the wrong shelf for that product and what I wanted was not on sale.

Continue reading Rite Aid (RAD) is wrong, wrong, wrong!

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) posts $3 billion quarterly loss

June 30 was the day when Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE: TMA) had hoped to complete at least 90% of its preferred stock repurchase as part of a last ditch effort to save the company from bankruptcy and return it to viability. CEO Larry Goldstone continues to state that bankruptcy is not an option.

Well, when the stock has lost 99% of its value, the company posted a $3 billion quarterly loss, no one will buy what you have to sell, shareholders who have lost just about everything don't want to play anymore, and Moody's handed the company a C (for crap) rating.

Bankruptcy looks like a realistic scenario. And just to keep things interesting, the SEC is investigating the company's 2007 financial results, the timing of margin calls, as well as accounting practices for the company's mortgage-backed securities.

Thornburg's problems have nothing to do with the sub-prime mortgage debacle, at least not directly. Thornburg specializes in jumbo mortgages to those with impeccable credit. Its default rate is the envy of the mortgage industry. So the problem is not creditworthiness, but liquidity. Investors simply are not interested in purchasing mortgage-backed securities of whatever quality in the secondary market.

Thornburg's latest last ditch effort calls for the company to purchase 90% of its preferred stock in exchange for $5 and 3.5 shares of common stock for each share of preferred stock. Shareholders recently gave the company permission to increase the number of shares outstanding from 500 million to four billion in order to make the tender offer possible. The deadline for tendering preferred shares has been extended to September 30. The stock is currently trading at $0.22 per share, way down from its 52 week high of $27.82.

Even a contrarian speculator will have to work very hard to find value in this one.

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DJIA+73.0311,288.54
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S&P 500+1.381,262.90

Last updated: July 06, 2008: 06:17 AM

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